Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
